Columbus Blue Jackets at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Sean MonahanGoals2
- Charlie CoyleAssists2
- Charlie CoylePoints3
Devils- Nico HischierGoals1
- Jesper BrattAssists2
- Nico HischierPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:31Miles Wood Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (14)5–3
- P311:51Timo Meier Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (21), Nico Hischier (15)4–3
- P37:14Sean Monahan Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Isac Lundeström (3)4–2
- P36:40Charlie Coyle Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Zach Werenski (17), Miles Wood (3)3–2
- P21:28Sean Monahan Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (8), Zach Werenski (16)2–2
- P19:54Denton Mateychuk Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Charlie Coyle (13), Ivan Provorov (5)1–2
- P13:03Ondrej Palat Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Arseny Gritsyuk (7)0–2
- P11:26Nico Hischier Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (20), Dawson Mercer (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:26Nico Hischier Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (20), Dawson Mercer (11)CBJ 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 58% → 72% +14NJ 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P21:28Sean Monahan Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (8), Zach Werenski (16)CBJ 2 – 2 NJ · CBJ 27% → 44% +17CBJ 27% → 44%+17 pts
- P36:40Charlie Coyle Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Zach Werenski (17), Miles Wood (3)CBJ 3 – 2 NJ · CBJ 46% → 75% +29CBJ 46% → 75%+29 pts
- P37:14Sean Monahan Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Isac Lundeström (3)CBJ 4 – 2 NJ · CBJ 76% → 93% +17CBJ 76% → 93%+17 pts
- P311:51Timo Meier Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (21), Nico Hischier (15)CBJ 4 – 3 NJ · NJ 3% → 18% +15NJ 3% → 18%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 58%
- ML CBJ +130 / NJ -150
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- NJ: Elo 60.7%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- NJ -138
- CBJ +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.0 – 3.5 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −17 | +2 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.43 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +76 Elo | NJ 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 58.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.29th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.210th of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 50.6%13th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 90.1%16th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–58th of 32 |
| 21st of 326–8 | Road vs home | 9–22nd of 32 |
| 4th of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 150411th of 32 |
| 19th of 321486 | Elo rating | 150714th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–12 | 10–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–7 | 3–12 |
| Underdog | 12–5 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 12–13 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 2–6 NJ in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.