San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Collin GrafGoals1
- Nick LeddyAssists1
- Collin GrafPoints1
Stars- Mikko RantanenGoals1
- Mikko RantanenAssists2
- Mikko RantanenPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:41Miro Heiskanen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (16)1–4
- P316:39Mikko Rantanen Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (17), Vladislav Kolyachonok (2)1–3
- P310:56Sam Steel Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Petrovic (7), Mikko Rantanen (25)1–2
- P28:23Collin Graf Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Dellandrea (7), Nick Leddy (3)1–1
- P114:20Jason Robertson Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Wyatt Johnston (16), Mikko Rantanen (24)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:20Jason Robertson Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Wyatt Johnston (16), Mikko Rantanen (24)SJ 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 68% → 81% +13DAL 68% → 81%+13 pts
- P28:23Collin Graf Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Dellandrea (7), Nick Leddy (3)SJ 1 – 1 DAL · SJ 19% → 35% +16SJ 19% → 35%+16 pts
- P310:56Sam Steel Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Petrovic (7), Mikko Rantanen (25)SJ 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 58% → 87% +29DAL 58% → 87%+29 pts
- P316:39Mikko Rantanen Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (17), Vladislav Kolyachonok (2)SJ 1 – 3 DAL · DAL 95% → >99% +5DAL 95% → >99%+5 pts
- P317:41Miro Heiskanen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (16)SJ 1 – 4 DAL · DAL >99% → >99% +0DAL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 71%
- ML SJ +225 / DAL -278
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- DAL: Elo 74.4%, market 70.5%
- Fair odds
- DAL -239
- SJ +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.6 – 3.9 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1408 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +2 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +185 Elo | DAL 74.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 71.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 72.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 70.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.53rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.65th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.93rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3243.5% | Shot share | 48.2%22nd of 32 |
| 14th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 91.2%4th of 32 |
| 7th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 27th of 324–7 | Road vs home | 8–56th of 32 |
| 4th of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321408 | Elo rating | 15562nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–8 | 12–16 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 4–16 |
| Underdog | 20–8 | 8–0 |
| Overs–unders | 13–15 | 13–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 0–6 DAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.