Washington Capitals at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Ryan LeonardGoals2
- Matt RoyAssists3
- Ryan LeonardPoints4
Sharks- Pavol RegendaGoals1
- Adam GaudetteAssists1
- Pavol RegendaPoints1
Scoring summary
- P312:58Pavol Regenda Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Dmitry Orlov (16), Adam Gaudette (3)7–1
- P31:03Ryan Leonard Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Matt Roy (8), Charlie Lindgren (1)7–0
- P219:34Dylan Strome Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Matt Roy (7), Ryan Leonard (11)6–0
- P22:41Alex Ovechkin Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Leonard (10), Jakob Chychrun (14)5–0
- P117:07Brandon Duhaime Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Aliaksei Protas (10)4–0
- P113:35Ryan Leonard Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor van Riemsdyk (3), Brandon Duhaime (2)3–0
- P110:05Sonny Milano Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Declan Chisholm (2), Trevor van Riemsdyk (2)2–0
- P18:25Alex Ovechkin Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Roy (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:25Alex Ovechkin Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Roy (6)WSH 1 – 0 SJ · WSH 57% → 71% +15WSH 57% → 71%+15 pts
- P110:05Sonny Milano Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Declan Chisholm (2), Trevor van Riemsdyk (2)WSH 2 – 0 SJ · WSH 71% → 83% +12WSH 71% → 83%+12 pts
- P113:35Ryan Leonard Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor van Riemsdyk (3), Brandon Duhaime (2)WSH 3 – 0 SJ · WSH 84% → 92% +8WSH 84% → 92%+8 pts
- P117:07Brandon Duhaime Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Aliaksei Protas (10)WSH 4 – 0 SJ · WSH 93% → 97% +4WSH 93% → 97%+4 pts
- P22:41Alex Ovechkin Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Leonard (10), Jakob Chychrun (14)WSH 5 – 0 SJ · WSH 98% → >99% +2WSH 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 57%
- ML WSH -148 / SJ +124
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- WSH: Elo 56.3%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- WSH -134
- SJ +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.5 – 3.0 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1413 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −13 | +6 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +44 Elo | WSH 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.022nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.322nd of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.4% | Shot share | 43.5%32nd of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 90.4%11th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–58th of 32 |
| 8th of 327–5 | Road vs home | 9–711th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 15065th of 32 |
| 5th of 321541 | Elo rating | 141332nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–11 | 20–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–10 | — |
| Underdog | 7–1 | 20–7 |
| Overs–unders | 12–15 | 12–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–2 SJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.