Vancouver Canucks at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Brock BoeserGoals1
- Evander KaneAssists1
- Brock BoeserPoints1
Sharks- Adam GaudetteGoals1
- Macklin CelebriniAssists2
- Macklin CelebriniPoints2
Scoring summary
- P215:17Adam Gaudette Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Philipp Kurashev (7), Tyler Toffoli (8)2–3
- P214:03William Eklund Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (22), John Klingberg (4)2–2
- P23:04Elias Pettersson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Evander Kane (9), Filip Hronek (14)2–1
- P19:25Will Smith Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (8), Macklin Celebrini (21)1–1
- P14:28Brock Boeser Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (9), Tom Willander (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:28Brock Boeser Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (9), Tom Willander (6)VAN 1 – 0 SJ · VAN 52% → 67% +15VAN 52% → 67%+15 pts
- P19:25Will Smith Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (8), Macklin Celebrini (21)VAN 1 – 1 SJ · SJ 33% → 48% +15SJ 33% → 48%+15 pts
- P23:04Elias Pettersson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Evander Kane (9), Filip Hronek (14)VAN 2 – 1 SJ · VAN 52% → 69% +18VAN 52% → 69%+18 pts
- P214:03William Eklund Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (22), John Klingberg (4)VAN 2 – 2 SJ · SJ 28% → 49% +21SJ 28% → 49%+21 pts
- P215:17Adam Gaudette Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Philipp Kurashev (7), Tyler Toffoli (8)VAN 2 – 3 SJ · SJ 49% → 70% +22SJ 49% → 70%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 52%
- ML VAN -120 / SJ +100
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- VAN: Elo 55.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- VAN -109
- SJ +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.3 – 3.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +6 | VAN: Nikita Tolopilo: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +36 Elo | VAN 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 51.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 3.323rd of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.5% | Shot share | 43.3%32nd of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 90.4%10th of 32 |
| 24th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 11th of 327–6 | Road vs home | 7–720th of 32 |
| 14th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15111st of 32 |
| 25th of 321478 | Elo rating | 140732nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–11 | 17–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | — |
| Underdog | 12–6 | 17–7 |
| Overs–unders | 18–6 | 10–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 7–1 SJ in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.