Washington Capitals at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Tom WilsonGoals1
- Alex OvechkinAssists2
- Alex OvechkinPoints2
Kings- Adrian KempeGoals1
- Trevor MooreAssists1
- Adrian KempePoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:18Aliaksei Protas Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Fehervary (7), John Carlson (17)3–1
- P31:18Anthony Beauvillier Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Connor McMichael (11), Alex Ovechkin (15)2–1
- P25:28Adrian Kempe Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Anze Kopitar (9), Trevor Moore (7)1–1
- P114:50Tom Wilson Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Leonard (9), Alex Ovechkin (14)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:50Tom Wilson Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Leonard (9), Alex Ovechkin (14)WSH 1 – 0 LA · WSH 48% → 65% +16WSH 48% → 65%+16 pts
- P25:28Adrian Kempe Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Anze Kopitar (9), Trevor Moore (7)WSH 1 – 1 LA · LA 33% → 52% +19LA 33% → 52%+19 pts
- P31:18Anthony Beauvillier Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Connor McMichael (11), Alex Ovechkin (15)WSH 2 – 1 LA · WSH 49% → 73% +25WSH 49% → 73%+25 pts
- P318:18Aliaksei Protas Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Fehervary (7), John Carlson (17)WSH 3 – 1 LA · WSH 98% → >99% +2WSH 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- LA 52%
- ML WSH +100 / LA -120
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- LA: Elo 52.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LA -109
- WSH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.7 – 2.8 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +5 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +19 Elo | LA 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.5% | Shot share | 52.6%7th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 90.3%13th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 11th of 326–5 | Road vs home | 3–730th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 32 |
| 6th of 321537 | Elo rating | 152210th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–11 | 10–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–10 | 3–13 |
| Underdog | 6–1 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 12–14 | 11–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–1 LA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.