Vancouver Canucks at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Evander KaneGoals1
- Drew O'ConnorAssists1
- Evander KanePoints1
Kings- Adrian KempeGoals1
- Adrian KempeAssists1
- Adrian KempePoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:58Adrian Kempe Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (15), Kevin Fiala (8)1–2
- P22:52Evander Kane Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Drew O'Connor (5), Tyler Myers (6)1–1
- P117:19Anze Kopitar Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (14), Brian Dumoulin (6)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:19Anze Kopitar Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (14), Brian Dumoulin (6)VAN 0 – 1 LA · LA 59% → 75% +16LA 59% → 75%+16 pts
- P22:52Evander Kane Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Drew O'Connor (5), Tyler Myers (6)VAN 1 – 1 LA · VAN 25% → 42% +17VAN 25% → 42%+17 pts
- OT3:58Adrian Kempe Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (15), Kevin Fiala (8)VAN 1 – 2 LA · LA 51% → >99% +48LA 51% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- LA 61%
- ML VAN +145 / LA -170
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- LA: Elo 61.1%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- LA -154
- VAN +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.9 – 3.6 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | −11 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +78 Elo | LA 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 64.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.120th of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.0% | Shot share | 52.5%8th of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 90.1%13th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 32 |
| 13th of 327–7 | Road vs home | 2–731st of 32 |
| 16th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150019th of 32 |
| 27th of 321475 | Elo rating | 15209th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–12 | 10–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 3–12 |
| Underdog | 12–6 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 18–7 | 11–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 3–4 LA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.