San Jose Sharks at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Will SmithGoals2
- Mario FerraroAssists1
- Will SmithPoints2
Golden Knights- Tomas HertlGoals2
- Mitch MarnerAssists1
- Tomas HertlPoints2
Scoring summary
- P219:35William Eklund Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Adam Gaudette (2), Mario Ferraro (6)3–4
- P214:40Will Smith Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (23)2–4
- P212:38Tomas Hertl Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Mitch Marner (20), Jack Eichel (21)1–4
- P27:02Mitch Marner Goal (5) Wrap-around, assists: Brett Howden (3), Mark Stone (12)1–3
- P25:36Colton Sissons Goal (1) Poke, assists: Keegan Kolesar (4), Cole Reinhardt (3)1–2
- P116:13Tomas Hertl Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (6), Ben Hutton (5)1–1
- P17:34Will Smith Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (9), Dmitry Orlov (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:34Will Smith Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (9), Dmitry Orlov (14)SJ 1 – 0 VGK · SJ 28% → 42% +14SJ 28% → 42%+14 pts
- P116:13Tomas Hertl Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (6), Ben Hutton (5)SJ 1 – 1 VGK · VGK 54% → 70% +16VGK 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P25:36Colton Sissons Goal (1) Poke, assists: Keegan Kolesar (4), Cole Reinhardt (3)SJ 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 68% → 83% +15VGK 68% → 83%+15 pts
- P27:02Mitch Marner Goal (5) Wrap-around, assists: Brett Howden (3), Mark Stone (12)SJ 1 – 3 VGK · VGK 83% → 93% +10VGK 83% → 93%+10 pts
- P219:35William Eklund Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Adam Gaudette (2), Mario Ferraro (6)SJ 3 – 4 VGK · SJ 5% → 16% +11SJ 5% → 16%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 73%
- ML SJ +260 / VGK -320
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- VGK: Elo 68.5%, market 73.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -274
- SJ +274 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.5 – 4.0 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1409 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −8 | SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · VGK: Carl Lindbom: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +135 Elo | VGK 68.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 73.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 72.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 73.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.017th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3243.2% | Shot share | 54.7%3rd of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 88.9%24th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 24th of 324–6 | Road vs home | 5–826th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 15059th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321409 | Elo rating | 151810th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–7 | 7–17 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | — | 4–16 |
| Underdog | 18–7 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–15 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 0–8 VGK in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.