Utah Mammoth at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Lawson CrouseGoals2
- Michael CarconeAssists1
- Lawson CrousePoints2
Sharks- Tyler ToffoliGoals2
- Macklin CelebriniAssists3
- Tyler ToffoliPoints4
Scoring summary
- P36:30Lawson Crouse Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (14)3–6
- P29:09Will Smith Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (11)2–6
- P27:25Adam Gaudette Goal (7) Backhand, assists: William Eklund (10)2–5
- P26:16Will Smith Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (26), Tyler Toffoli (10)2–4
- P116:00JJ Peterka Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (10), Clayton Keller (14)2–3
- P112:59Tyler Toffoli Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (25)1–3
- P19:06Lawson Crouse Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Carcone (5)1–2
- P17:58Pavol Regenda Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Philipp Kurashev (8), Dmitry Orlov (15)0–2
- P14:41Tyler Toffoli Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (24), Will Smith (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:41Tyler Toffoli Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (24), Will Smith (15)UTA 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 40% → 56% +15SJ 40% → 56%+15 pts
- P19:06Lawson Crouse Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Carcone (5)UTA 1 – 2 SJ · UTA 29% → 43% +15UTA 29% → 43%+15 pts
- P112:59Tyler Toffoli Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (25)UTA 1 – 3 SJ · SJ 58% → 73% +15SJ 58% → 73%+15 pts
- P116:00JJ Peterka Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (10), Clayton Keller (14)UTA 2 – 3 SJ · UTA 26% → 42% +15UTA 26% → 42%+15 pts
- P26:16Will Smith Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (26), Tyler Toffoli (10)UTA 2 – 4 SJ · SJ 62% → 78% +17SJ 62% → 78%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 60%
- ML UTA -165 / SJ +140
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- UTA: Elo 57.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- UTA -149
- SJ +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 3.5 – 3.0 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1408 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +7 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +50 Elo | UTA 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 59.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 14th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 4th of 3254.4% | Shot share | 43.3%32nd of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 90.4%11th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 32 |
| 27th of 325–10 | Road vs home | 8–716th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 15083rd of 32 |
| 16th of 321493 | Elo rating | 140832nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–15 | 19–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–12 | — |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 19–7 |
| Overs–unders | 12–14 | 11–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 3–2 SJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.
