Anaheim Ducks at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Beckett SenneckeGoals1
- Beckett SenneckeAssists1
- Beckett SenneckePoints2
Penguins- Noel AcciariGoals1
- Erik KarlssonAssists2
- Erik KarlssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Leo Carlsson Goal Backhand1–0
- P319:59Beckett Sennecke Goal (10) , assists: none3–3
- P316:05Anthony Mantha Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (13), Erik Karlsson (19)2–3
- P219:41Thomas Novak Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (18), Ryan Shea (9)2–2
- P214:10Troy Terry Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P25:19Jackson LaCombe Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (16), Cutter Gauthier (18)1–1
- P19:49Noel Acciari Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Dewar (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:19Jackson LaCombe Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (16), Cutter Gauthier (18)ANA 1 – 1 PIT · ANA 32% → 50% +18ANA 32% → 50%+18 pts
- P214:10Troy Terry Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneANA 2 – 1 PIT · ANA 50% → 71% +21ANA 50% → 71%+21 pts
- P219:41Thomas Novak Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (18), Ryan Shea (9)ANA 2 – 2 PIT · PIT 26% → 50% +23PIT 26% → 50%+23 pts
- P316:05Anthony Mantha Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (13), Erik Karlsson (19)ANA 2 – 3 PIT · PIT 50% → 92% +42PIT 50% → 92%+42 pts
- P319:59Beckett Sennecke Goal (10) , assists: noneANA 3 – 3 PIT · ANA 0% → 50% +50ANA 0% → 50%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 50%
- ML ANA -112 / PIT -108
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- ANA: Elo 44.8%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- ANA -102
- PIT +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.3 – 3.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −5 | ANA: Ville Husso: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +36 Elo | PIT 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.7 | Goals scored | 3.111th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.37th of 32 |
| 9th of 3252.0% | Shot share | 48.8%20th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 90.6%9th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 14th of 327–7 | Road vs home | 5–625th of 32 |
| 18th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149720th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321486 | Elo rating | 148919th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–13 | 20–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 17–2 |
| Overs–unders | 18–11 | 13–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 3–2 PIT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.