Chicago Blackhawks at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Tyler BertuzziGoals1
- Connor BedardAssists1
- Tyler BertuzziPoints1
Ducks- Leo CarlssonGoals2
- Chris KreiderAssists2
- Leo CarlssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:08Frank Vatrano Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Olen Zellweger (7), Ryan Strome (4)1–7
- P31:40Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (22), Artyom Levshunov (13)1–6
- P30:15Leo Carlsson Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (8), Jackson LaCombe (13)0–6
- P217:23Leo Carlsson Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (7), Troy Terry (23)0–5
- P216:09Alex Killorn Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (3), Pavel Mintyukov (5)0–4
- P29:26Beckett Sennecke Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (17), Radko Gudas (5)0–3
- P26:40Mason McTavish Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (15), Cutter Gauthier (16)0–2
- P110:16Jacob Trouba Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:16Jacob Trouba Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: noneCHI 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 63% → 76% +14ANA 63% → 76%+14 pts
- P26:40Mason McTavish Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (15), Cutter Gauthier (16)CHI 0 – 2 ANA · ANA 77% → 89% +12ANA 77% → 89%+12 pts
- P29:26Beckett Sennecke Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (17), Radko Gudas (5)CHI 0 – 3 ANA · ANA 90% → 96% +6ANA 90% → 96%+6 pts
- P216:09Alex Killorn Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (3), Pavel Mintyukov (5)CHI 0 – 4 ANA · ANA 97% → >99% +2ANA 97% → >99%+2 pts
- P217:23Leo Carlsson Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (7), Troy Terry (23)CHI 0 – 5 ANA · ANA >99% → >99% +0ANA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 64%
- ML CHI +164 / ANA -198
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- ANA: Elo 66.5%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- ANA -175
- CHI +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.9 – 3.6 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −18 | −7 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.44 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · ANA: Ville Husso: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +119 Elo | ANA 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 67.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 66.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.424th of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.27th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.9% | Shot share | 51.1%12th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 89.0%24th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 20th of 326–8 | Road vs home | 10–42nd of 32 |
| 17th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 32 |
| 31st of 321438 | Elo rating | 148224th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–5 | 15–13 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 1–7 |
| Underdog | 23–5 | 14–6 |
| Overs–unders | 13–15 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 6–2 ANA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.