Chicago Blackhawks at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Wyatt KaiserGoals1
- Frank NazarAssists2
- Frank NazarPoints2
Kings- Trevor MooreGoals1
- Trevor MoorePoints1
Scoring summary
- P310:38Trevor Moore Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (1)2–1
- P219:54Wyatt Kaiser Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Nazar (15), Oliver Moore (5)2–0
- P26:17Connor Bedard Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (10), Frank Nazar (14)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:17Connor Bedard Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (10), Frank Nazar (14)CHI 1 – 0 LA · CHI 40% → 59% +19CHI 40% → 59%+19 pts
- P219:54Wyatt Kaiser Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Nazar (15), Oliver Moore (5)CHI 2 – 0 LA · CHI 67% → 86% +19CHI 67% → 86%+19 pts
- P310:38Trevor Moore Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (1)CHI 2 – 1 LA · LA 4% → 22% +17LA 4% → 22%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- LA 64%
- ML CHI +164 / LA -198
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- LA: Elo 65.5%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- LA -175
- CHI +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.4 – 3.1 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1439 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +4 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +111 Elo | LA 65.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 68.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 68.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.6% | Shot share | 52.5%7th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 90.3%11th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–58th of 32 |
| 21st of 325–7 | Road vs home | 3–830th of 32 |
| 20th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 32 |
| 31st of 321439 | Elo rating | 151811th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–4 | 10–16 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | — | 3–14 |
| Underdog | 22–4 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 12–14 | 11–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–5 LA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.