Chicago Blackhawks at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Tyler BertuzziGoals1
- Tyler BertuzziAssists1
- Tyler BertuzziPoints2
Golden Knights- Ivan BarbashevGoals1
- Shea TheodoreAssists2
- Ivan BarbashevPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Shea Theodore Goal Backhand1–2
- SO0:00Connor Bedard Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Pavel Dorofeyev Goal Backhand1–2
- P317:32Braeden Bowman Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Shea Theodore (13), Ivan Barbashev (13)3–3
- P34:45Connor Bedard Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (11), Ryan Greene (5)3–2
- P217:19Ben Hutton Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (13)2–2
- P211:22Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P11:23Oliver Moore Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (9), Frank Nazar (13)1–1
- P10:27Ivan Barbashev Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Braeden Bowman (4), Shea Theodore (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:23Oliver Moore Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (9), Frank Nazar (13)CHI 1 – 1 VGK · CHI 18% → 30% +11CHI 18% → 30%+11 pts
- P211:22Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCHI 2 – 1 VGK · CHI 35% → 56% +21CHI 35% → 56%+21 pts
- P217:19Ben Hutton Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (13)CHI 2 – 2 VGK · VGK 40% → 63% +23VGK 40% → 63%+23 pts
- P34:45Connor Bedard Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (11), Ryan Greene (5)CHI 3 – 2 VGK · CHI 39% → 67% +28CHI 39% → 67%+28 pts
- P317:32Braeden Bowman Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Shea Theodore (13), Ivan Barbashev (13)CHI 3 – 3 VGK · VGK 5% → 54% +50VGK 5% → 54%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 71%
- ML CHI +225 / VGK -278
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- VGK: Elo 65.2%, market 70.5%
- Fair odds
- VGK -239
- CHI +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.1 – 3.4 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +5 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +109 Elo | VGK 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 69.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 68.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 70.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 13th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.016th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.3 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.3% | Shot share | 54.7%3rd of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 88.8%24th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 18th of 325–6 | Road vs home | 6–824th of 32 |
| 20th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 32 |
| 31st of 321441 | Elo rating | 151911th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–4 | 7–18 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | — | 4–17 |
| Underdog | 21–4 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 11–14 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–4 VGK in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.