Chicago Blackhawks at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks
Kings- Brandt ClarkeGoals2
- Drew DoughtyAssists2
- Brandt ClarkePoints2
Scoring summary
- P39:34Alex Turcotte Goal (2) Deflected, assists: none0–6
- P36:18Mikey Anderson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (5), Drew Doughty (8)0–5
- P34:46Brandt Clarke Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (15), Alex Laferriere (6)0–4
- P219:06Brandt Clarke Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Turcotte (4), Corey Perry (7)0–3
- P216:38Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (9), Drew Doughty (7)0–2
- P21:55Warren Foegele Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:55Warren Foegele Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (8)CHI 0 – 1 LA · LA 61% → 77% +16LA 61% → 77%+16 pts
- P216:38Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (9), Drew Doughty (7)CHI 0 – 2 LA · LA 79% → 92% +13LA 79% → 92%+13 pts
- P219:06Brandt Clarke Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Turcotte (4), Corey Perry (7)CHI 0 – 3 LA · LA 93% → 98% +5LA 93% → 98%+5 pts
- P34:46Brandt Clarke Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (15), Alex Laferriere (6)CHI 0 – 4 LA · LA >99% → >99% +1LA >99% → >99%+1 pts
- P36:18Mikey Anderson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (5), Drew Doughty (8)CHI 0 – 5 LA · LA >99% → >99% +0LA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- LA 64%
- ML CHI +164 / LA -198
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- LA: Elo 64.5%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- LA -175
- CHI +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.4 – 3.1 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +5 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +103 Elo | LA 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 65.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 31st of 3246.1% | Shot share | 52.1%8th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 90.6%11th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 18th of 326–7 | Road vs home | 3–930th of 32 |
| 18th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 32 |
| 31st of 321442 | Elo rating | 151511th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–4 | 10–17 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | — | 3–15 |
| Underdog | 23–4 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 12–15 | 11–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 3–5 LA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.