Utah Mammoth at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- JJ PeterkaGoals2
- JJ PeterkaAssists2
- JJ PeterkaPoints4
DucksScoring summary
- P312:52Clayton Keller Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (9), Nick Schmaltz (14)7–0
- P310:06JJ Peterka Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (11), Clayton Keller (16)6–0
- P31:41Liam O'Brien Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jack McBain (5), Sean Durzi (2)5–0
- P214:34JJ Peterka Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (13), Clayton Keller (15)4–0
- P25:43Ian Cole Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Maveric Lamoureux (1), JJ Peterka (8)3–0
- P110:30Dylan Guenther Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Ian Cole (9)2–0
- P15:59Lawson Crouse Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Michael Carcone (6), Jack McBain (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:59Lawson Crouse Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Michael Carcone (6), Jack McBain (4)UTA 1 – 0 ANA · UTA 50% → 65% +15UTA 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P110:30Dylan Guenther Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Ian Cole (9)UTA 2 – 0 ANA · UTA 66% → 79% +13UTA 66% → 79%+13 pts
- P25:43Ian Cole Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Maveric Lamoureux (1), JJ Peterka (8)UTA 3 – 0 ANA · UTA 83% → 93% +9UTA 83% → 93%+9 pts
- P214:34JJ Peterka Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (13), Clayton Keller (15)UTA 4 – 0 ANA · UTA 95% → 99% +3UTA 95% → 99%+3 pts
- P31:41Liam O'Brien Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jack McBain (5), Sean Durzi (2)UTA 5 – 0 ANA · UTA >99% → >99% +0UTA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 50%
- ML UTA -112 / ANA -108
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- UTA: Elo 46.4%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- UTA -102
- ANA +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 3.3 – 3.2 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −4 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · ANA: Ville Husso: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +25 Elo | ANA 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 52.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.72nd of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.56th of 32 |
| 4th of 3254.3% | Shot share | 50.9%12th of 32 |
| 28th of 3287.9% | Save percentage | 89.5%20th of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–58th of 32 |
| 30th of 325–11 | Road vs home | 9–32nd of 32 |
| 24th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 32 |
| 17th of 321488 | Elo rating | 148620th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–16 | 14–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–13 | 1–7 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 13–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–14 | 15–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 1–3 ANA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.
