Washington Capitals at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Tom WilsonGoals1
- Dylan StromeAssists1
- Tom WilsonPoints1
Ducks- Beckett SenneckeGoals1
- Beckett SenneckeAssists1
- Ross JohnstonPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Mason McTavish Goal Snap Shot1–2
- SO0:00Anthony Beauvillier Goal Backhand1–2
- SO0:00Troy Terry Goal Backhand1–2
- P217:59Beckett Sennecke Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Johnston (5)3–3
- P27:38Aliaksei Protas Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Roy (9), Dylan Strome (17)3–2
- P26:19Ross Johnston Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Radko Gudas (4), Olen Zellweger (6)2–2
- P26:06Ethen Frank Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P118:16Cutter Gauthier Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (14), Jackson LaCombe (12)1–1
- P19:29Tom Wilson Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Sourdif (4), Trevor van Riemsdyk (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:16Cutter Gauthier Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Beckett Sennecke (14), Jackson LaCombe (12)WSH 1 – 1 ANA · ANA 29% → 46% +16ANA 29% → 46%+16 pts
- P26:06Ethen Frank Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneWSH 2 – 1 ANA · WSH 54% → 72% +18WSH 54% → 72%+18 pts
- P26:19Ross Johnston Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Radko Gudas (4), Olen Zellweger (6)WSH 2 – 2 ANA · ANA 28% → 46% +18ANA 28% → 46%+18 pts
- P27:38Aliaksei Protas Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Roy (9), Dylan Strome (17)WSH 3 – 2 ANA · WSH 54% → 72% +19WSH 54% → 72%+19 pts
- P217:59Beckett Sennecke Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Johnston (5)WSH 3 – 3 ANA · ANA 25% → 47% +22ANA 25% → 47%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 55%
- ML WSH -135 / ANA +114
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- WSH: Elo 57.0%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -123
- ANA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.4 – 3.1 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −9 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · ANA: Ville Husso: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +49 Elo | WSH 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.423rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.0 | Margin | +0.210th of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.5% | Shot share | 50.6%13th of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 89.1%24th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 5–57th of 32 |
| 3rd of 328–5 | Road vs home | 9–42nd of 32 |
| 11th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 32 |
| 4th of 321547 | Elo rating | 147924th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–11 | 14–13 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–10 | 1–7 |
| Underdog | 7–1 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 13–15 | 16–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–0 ANA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.