Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Darren RaddyshGoals2
- Nikita KucherovAssists1
- Darren RaddyshPoints2
Canadiens- Oliver KapanenGoals1
- Nick SuzukiAssists1
- Oliver KapanenPoints1
Scoring summary
- P38:41Darren Raddysh Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (9)6–1
- P31:22Darren Raddysh Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (9)5–1
- P219:06Oliver Kapanen Goal (9) Batted, assists: Nick Suzuki (25), Ivan Demidov (17)4–1
- P22:43Charle-Edouard D'Astous Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (23)4–0
- P117:12Nikita Kucherov Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Max Crozier (4)3–0
- P16:03Pontus Holmberg Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none2–0
- P12:27Brayden Point Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (15), Oliver Bjorkstrand (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:27Brayden Point Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (15), Oliver Bjorkstrand (8)TB 1 – 0 MTL · TB 50% → 65% +15TB 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P16:03Pontus Holmberg Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: noneTB 2 – 0 MTL · TB 65% → 78% +13TB 65% → 78%+13 pts
- P117:12Nikita Kucherov Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Max Crozier (4)TB 3 – 0 MTL · TB 81% → 90% +10TB 81% → 90%+10 pts
- P22:43Charle-Edouard D'Astous Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (23)TB 4 – 0 MTL · TB 92% → 97% +5TB 92% → 97%+5 pts
- P219:06Oliver Kapanen Goal (9) Batted, assists: Nick Suzuki (25), Ivan Demidov (17)TB 4 – 1 MTL · MTL <1% → 3% +2MTL <1% → 3%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TB 50%
- ML TB -112 / MTL -108
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- TB: Elo 46.7%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -102
- MTL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.3 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TB on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −12 | +1 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +23 Elo | MTL 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 53.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.38th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.529th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 48.2%22nd of 32 |
| 6th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 87.7%30th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 8th of 328–6 | Road vs home | 7–821st of 32 |
| 9th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 32 |
| 4th of 321540 | Elo rating | 148622nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–17 | 11–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–17 | 2–13 |
| Underdog | 7–0 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders | 13–16 | 20–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 5–2 MTL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.