New York Islanders at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Casey CizikasGoals1
- Anders LeeAssists1
- Casey CizikasPoints1
LightningScoring summary
- P319:58Casey Cizikas Goal (3) Backhand, assists: none2–0
- P312:46Calum Ritchie Goal (3) Between Legs, assists: Anders Lee (10), Tony DeAngelo (10)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P312:46Calum Ritchie Goal (3) Between Legs, assists: Anders Lee (10), Tony DeAngelo (10)NYI 1 – 0 TB · NYI 48% → 84% +36NYI 48% → 84%+36 pts
- P319:58Casey Cizikas Goal (3) Backhand, assists: noneNYI 2 – 0 TB · NYI 100% → 100% +0NYI 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 56%
- ML NYI +120 / TB -142
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- TB: Elo 61.7%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -129
- NYI +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.1 – 3.4 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −17 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.44 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +83 Elo | TB 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 60.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.38th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.65th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.64th of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.9% | Shot share | 49.7%16th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 90.8%6th of 32 |
| 8th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 3rd of 328–5 | Road vs home | 8–611th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 150411th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321483 | Elo rating | 15493rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–15 | 12–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–10 | 5–15 |
| Underdog | 12–5 | 7–0 |
| Overs–unders | 14–14 | 13–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 3–4 TB in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.