Colorado Avalanche at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Martin NecasGoals1
- Martin NecasAssists1
- Martin NecasPoints2
Islanders- Mathew BarzalGoals1
- Mathew BarzalAssists2
- Mathew BarzalPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:45Casey Cizikas Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none3–6
- P31:27Artturi Lehkonen Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (24), Martin Necas (21)3–5
- P218:46Mathew Barzal Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Max Shabanov (6), Bo Horvat (12)2–5
- P210:04Martin Necas Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (11), Brent Burns (10)2–4
- P28:39Valeri Nichushkin Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Sam Malinski (12), Brock Nelson (9)1–4
- P27:59Adam Pelech Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (13), Anders Lee (9)0–4
- P26:58Bo Horvat Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Schaefer (12), Ryan Pulock (13)0–3
- P118:20Anders Lee Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (12)0–2
- P15:56Kyle MacLean Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Pulock (12), Marc Gatcomb (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:56Kyle MacLean Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Pulock (12), Marc Gatcomb (1)COL 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 38% → 54% +15NYI 38% → 54%+15 pts
- P118:20Anders Lee Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (12)COL 0 – 2 NYI · NYI 57% → 73% +16NYI 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P26:58Bo Horvat Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Schaefer (12), Ryan Pulock (13)COL 0 – 3 NYI · NYI 77% → 89% +12NYI 77% → 89%+12 pts
- P210:04Martin Necas Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (11), Brent Burns (10)COL 2 – 4 NYI · COL 9% → 21% +12COL 9% → 21%+12 pts
- P218:46Mathew Barzal Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Max Shabanov (6), Bo Horvat (12)COL 2 – 5 NYI · NYI 85% → 95% +10NYI 85% → 95%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 62%
- ML COL -185 / NYI +154
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- COL: Elo 60.1%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- COL -165
- NYI +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.6 – 2.9 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1588 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +1 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +71 Elo | COL 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 61.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.1 | Goals scored | 2.925th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.2 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.9 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.4% | Shot share | 51.9%9th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.2% | Save percentage | 90.4%11th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 5–58th of 32 |
| 3rd of 328–5 | Road vs home | 6–825th of 32 |
| 31st of 321489 | Opponent Elo | 15074th of 32 |
| 1st of 321588 | Elo rating | 147725th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–10 | 12–15 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–10 | 1–10 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–16 | 13–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–2 NYI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.