Vancouver Canucks at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Linus KarlssonGoals1
- Aatu RatyAssists1
- Linus KarlssonPoints1
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals2
- Gabriel LandeskogAssists2
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P219:26Nathan MacKinnon Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: Gabriel Landeskog (9), Josh Manson (3)1–3
- P213:52Brock Nelson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Landeskog (8), Ross Colton (9)1–2
- P119:23Nathan MacKinnon Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Devon Toews (8), Sam Malinski (11)1–1
- P12:55Linus Karlsson Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Arshdeep Bains (4), Aatu Raty (6)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:55Linus Karlsson Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Arshdeep Bains (4), Aatu Raty (6)VAN 1 – 0 COL · VAN 26% → 39% +13VAN 26% → 39%+13 pts
- P119:23Nathan MacKinnon Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Devon Toews (8), Sam Malinski (11)VAN 1 – 1 COL · COL 54% → 71% +17COL 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P213:52Brock Nelson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Landeskog (8), Ross Colton (9)VAN 1 – 2 COL · COL 67% → 84% +17COL 67% → 84%+17 pts
- P219:26Nathan MacKinnon Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: Gabriel Landeskog (9), Josh Manson (3)VAN 1 – 3 COL · COL 84% → 95% +10COL 84% → 95%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- COL 75%
- ML VAN +280 / COL -355
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- COL: Elo 72.0%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- COL -296
- VAN +296 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.5 – 4.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1586 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +9 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +164 Elo | COL 72.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 73.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 73.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 4.11st of 32 |
| 30th of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 2.21st of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +1.91st of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.0% | Shot share | 56.2%2nd of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 92.1%1st of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 16th of 327–8 | Road vs home | 10–21st of 32 |
| 13th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149030th of 32 |
| 26th of 321473 | Elo rating | 15861st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–12 | 15–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 14–10 |
| Underdog | 13–6 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 18–8 | 10–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 3–4 COL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.