Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning
Maple Leafs- Morgan RiellyGoals1
- John TavaresAssists1
- Morgan RiellyPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:59Auston Matthews Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P116:26Morgan Rielly Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Easton Cowan (6), John Tavares (17)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:26Morgan Rielly Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Easton Cowan (6), John Tavares (17)TB 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 46% → 63% +17TOR 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P319:59Auston Matthews Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTB 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 100% → 100% +0TOR 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TB 54%
- ML TB -130 / TOR +110
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- TB: Elo 46.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -119
- TOR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.4 – 3.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −14 | −6 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · TOR: Dennis Hildeby: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +25 Elo | TOR 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.111th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 46.3%30th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 90.0%15th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 32 |
| 4th of 328–5 | Road vs home | 8–818th of 32 |
| 11th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 149130th of 32 |
| 4th of 321544 | Elo rating | 152610th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–16 | 11–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–16 | 4–14 |
| Underdog | 7–0 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 13–15 | 18–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 2–6 TOR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.