Buffalo Sabres at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Josh DoanGoals2
- Rasmus DahlinAssists3
- Tage ThompsonPoints3
Oilers- Connor McDavidGoals2
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsAssists1
- Connor McDavidPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:33Alex Tuch Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (10), Rasmus Dahlin (21)4–3
- P319:58Connor McDavid Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (16), Evan Bouchard (23)3–3
- P31:56Vasily Podkolzin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (21), Ty Emberson (6)3–2
- P30:10Connor McDavid Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (13)3–1
- P211:59Josh Doan Goal (10) Between Legs, assists: Tage Thompson (12), Rasmus Dahlin (20)3–0
- P211:03Tage Thompson Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: none2–0
- P119:01Josh Doan Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (19), Tage Thompson (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:01Josh Doan Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (19), Tage Thompson (11)BUF 1 – 0 EDM · BUF 38% → 55% +17BUF 38% → 55%+17 pts
- P211:03Tage Thompson Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: noneBUF 2 – 0 EDM · BUF 61% → 79% +18BUF 61% → 79%+18 pts
- P31:56Vasily Podkolzin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (21), Ty Emberson (6)BUF 3 – 2 EDM · EDM 13% → 32% +19EDM 13% → 32%+19 pts
- P319:58Connor McDavid Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (16), Evan Bouchard (23)BUF 3 – 3 EDM · EDM 0% → 50% +50EDM 0% → 50%+50 pts
- OT0:33Alex Tuch Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (10), Rasmus Dahlin (21)BUF 4 – 3 EDM · BUF 46% → 89% +43BUF 46% → 89%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 64%
- ML BUF +170 / EDM -205
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- EDM: Elo 68.7%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- EDM -181
- BUF +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.8 – 3.7 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BUF on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −2 | BUF: Colten Ellis: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +137 Elo | EDM 68.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 64.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.528th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.221st of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 51.8%9th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 87.7%30th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 32nd of 322–11 | Road vs home | 7–59th of 32 |
| 4th of 321509 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 32 |
| 27th of 321467 | Elo rating | 15377th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–17 | 11–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 6–16 |
| Underdog | 9–10 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 15–14 | 17–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 3–2 EDM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.