Seattle Kraken at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Frederick GaudreauGoals1
- Kaapo KakkoAssists2
- Kaapo KakkoPoints2
Oilers- Connor McDavidGoals3
- Leon DraisaitlAssists3
- Connor McDavidPoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:55Jani Nyman Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Wright (7), Kaapo Kakko (2)4–9
- P38:58Matt Savoie Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (7), Mattias Ekholm (11)3–9
- P36:59Connor McDavid Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (15), Leon Draisaitl (19)3–8
- P32:03Mattias Janmark Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (6)3–7
- P29:30Jared McCann Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (7), Matty Beniers (12)3–6
- P28:53Zach Hyman Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Mattias Ekholm (10)2–6
- P26:14Connor McDavid Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (21), Leon Draisaitl (18)2–5
- P22:28Matt Savoie Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Evan Bouchard (20), Adam Henrique (6)2–4
- P119:33Freddy Gaudreau Goal (1) Backhand, assists: none2–3
- P116:07Eeli Tolvanen Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (9), Kaapo Kakko (1)1–3
- P111:27Leon Draisaitl Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (26), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (14)0–3
- P17:34Vasily Podkolzin Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (17), Evan Bouchard (19)0–2
- P17:17Connor McDavid Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:17Connor McDavid Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (13)SEA 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 63% → 76% +13EDM 63% → 76%+13 pts
- P17:34Vasily Podkolzin Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (17), Evan Bouchard (19)SEA 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 76% → 87% +10EDM 76% → 87%+10 pts
- P116:07Eeli Tolvanen Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (9), Kaapo Kakko (1)SEA 1 – 3 EDM · SEA 6% → 12% +7SEA 6% → 12%+7 pts
- P119:33Freddy Gaudreau Goal (1) Backhand, assists: noneSEA 2 – 3 EDM · SEA 12% → 23% +11SEA 12% → 23%+11 pts
- P22:28Matt Savoie Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Evan Bouchard (20), Adam Henrique (6)SEA 2 – 4 EDM · EDM 77% → 88% +12EDM 77% → 88%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 64%
- ML SEA +164 / EDM -198
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- EDM: Elo 62.6%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- EDM -175
- SEA +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.4 – 3.1 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +2 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +89 Elo | EDM 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 65.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 32 |
| 7th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.628th of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.1% | Shot share | 51.7%10th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 87.6%32nd of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 21st of 325–7 | Road vs home | 5–517th of 32 |
| 24th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 150213th of 32 |
| 27th of 321472 | Elo rating | 15298th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–7 | 9–18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 4–16 |
| Underdog | 14–4 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–15 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–8 EDM in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.