Minnesota Wild at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors EDM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Jonas BrodinGoals1
- Nico SturmAssists1
- Jonas BrodinPoints1
OilersScoring summary
- P113:11Jonas Brodin Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Nico Sturm (1)1–0
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:11Jonas Brodin Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Nico Sturm (1)MIN 1 – 0 EDM · MIN 44% → 60% +16MIN 44% → 60%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 57%
- ML MIN +124 / EDM -148
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- EDM: Elo 55.8%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- EDM -134
- MIN +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.0 – 3.5 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | −5 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.33 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +41 Elo | EDM 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 63.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.113th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.730th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.528th of 32 |
| 24th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 51.5%10th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.7% | Save percentage | 87.3%32nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 32 |
| 10th of 326–5 | Road vs home | 5–414th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 150214th of 32 |
| 13th of 321508 | Elo rating | 15328th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–11 | 9–17 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 4–15 |
| Underdog | 12–3 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 12–14 | 15–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–3 EDM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.