Edmonton Oilers at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Zach HymanGoals1
- Zach HymanAssists1
- Zach HymanPoints2
KrakenScoring summary
- P36:25Connor McDavid Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (3), Mattias Ekholm (9)4–0
- P218:51Zach Hyman Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Leon Draisaitl (16), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (12)3–0
- P212:30Leon Draisaitl Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (5), Ty Emberson (4)2–0
- P111:29Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (18), Connor McDavid (25)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:29Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (18), Connor McDavid (25)EDM 1 – 0 SEA · EDM 57% → 72% +15EDM 57% → 72%+15 pts
- P212:30Leon Draisaitl Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (5), Ty Emberson (4)EDM 2 – 0 SEA · EDM 75% → 89% +14EDM 75% → 89%+14 pts
- P218:51Zach Hyman Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Leon Draisaitl (16), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (12)EDM 3 – 0 SEA · EDM 91% → 97% +6EDM 91% → 97%+6 pts
- P36:25Connor McDavid Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (3), Mattias Ekholm (9)EDM 4 – 0 SEA · EDM >99% → >99% +1EDM >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 57%
- ML EDM -150 / SEA +125
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- EDM: Elo 49.9%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- EDM -135
- SEA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.0 – 2.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +7 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +1 Elo | SEA 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 56.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.631st of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.120th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 46.9%28th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3286.8% | Save percentage | 91.0%5th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 29th of 325–11 | Road vs home | 6–514th of 32 |
| 13th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 149326th of 32 |
| 8th of 321527 | Elo rating | 147726th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–17 | 17–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–15 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 14–3 |
| Overs–unders | 15–10 | 9–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 7–2 SEA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.