Buffalo Sabres at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Rasmus DahlinGoals1
- Jason ZuckerAssists2
- Rasmus DahlinPoints2
Flames- Yegor SharangovichGoals2
- Matt CoronatoAssists2
- Yegor SharangovichPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:53Yegor Sharangovich Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Yan Kuznetsov (3)4–7
- P318:12Mikael Backlund Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–6
- P317:29Alex Tuch Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (18), Jason Zucker (9)4–5
- P217:27Yan Kuznetsov Goal (2) Poke, assists: Blake Coleman (5)3–5
- P216:32Rasmus Dahlin Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Josh Doan (12), Josh Norris (5)3–4
- P214:14Nazem Kadri Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Joel Farabee (8), Yegor Sharangovich (5)2–4
- P213:43Owen Power Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (8), Jacob Bryson (3)2–3
- P27:05Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Matt Coronato (9), Morgan Frost (10)1–3
- P24:24Tage Thompson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (8), Josh Norris (4)1–2
- P113:22Rasmus Andersson Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (8), Nazem Kadri (20)0–2
- P19:54Yegor Sharangovich Goal (5) Deflected, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (5), Nazem Kadri (19)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:54Yegor Sharangovich Goal (5) Deflected, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (5), Nazem Kadri (19)BUF 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 50% → 66% +16CGY 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P213:43Owen Power Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (8), Jacob Bryson (3)BUF 2 – 3 CGY · BUF 14% → 29% +16BUF 14% → 29%+16 pts
- P214:14Nazem Kadri Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Joel Farabee (8), Yegor Sharangovich (5)BUF 2 – 4 CGY · CGY 71% → 87% +16CGY 71% → 87%+16 pts
- P216:32Rasmus Dahlin Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Josh Doan (12), Josh Norris (5)BUF 3 – 4 CGY · BUF 12% → 28% +16BUF 12% → 28%+16 pts
- P217:27Yan Kuznetsov Goal (2) Poke, assists: Blake Coleman (5)BUF 3 – 5 CGY · CGY 72% → 88% +16CGY 72% → 88%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 50%
- ML BUF -110 / CGY -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.6 pts
- CGY: Elo 57.6%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CGY -100
- BUF -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.3 – 3.3 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +9 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +53 Elo | CGY 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.432nd of 32 |
| 26th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.914th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.529th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 50.6%14th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.5%10th of 32 |
| 11th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 32nd of 322–10 | Road vs home | 6–619th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 149719th of 32 |
| 28th of 321470 | Elo rating | 147825th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–16 | 18–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 9–9 | 15–10 |
| Overs–unders | 14–14 | 18–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 2–3 CGY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.