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Utah Mammoth at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast

FinalUtah 16, NHL Net

Away

Mammoth

14-13-3

0–2

at

Home

Flames

11-15-4

UTA 45%CGY 55%

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Scotiabank Saddledome · Utah 16, NHL Net

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.

CGY favored UTA favored2 scoring plays
P1P2P3CGY50%UTA

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Mammoth

    Scoring summary

    • P317:46Connor Zary Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
    • P10:16Yegor Sharangovich Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (18), Joel Farabee (7)0–1

    Turning points

    The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P10:16Yegor Sharangovich Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (18), Joel Farabee (7)UTA 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 55% → 69% +14
    2. P317:46Connor Zary Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneUTA 0 – 2 CGY · CGY 97% → >99% +3

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Flames 55%

    LeanHit
    UTA 45%CGY 55%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

    Market
    CGY 55%
    ML UTA +114 / CGY -135
    Pre-line forecast
    CGY 52%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    CGY 59%
    Ratings vs. market
    +3.7 pts
    CGY: Elo 58.8%, market 55.1%
    Fair odds
    CGY -123
    UTA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    UTA 2.6 – 2.9 CGY
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorUTACGYWhy
    Team rating14991475Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Rest−30—UTA on the second night of a back-to-back
    Starting goalies−14+7UTA: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsCGY +62 EloCGY 58.8%
    Market-implied ratingsUTA 50.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastCGY 51.8%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastCGY 55.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Utah Mammoth and Calgary Flames compared, with each team's league rank
    UTAStatCGY
    15th of 323.1Goals scored2.432nd of 32
    13th of 322.9Goals allowed3.017th of 32
    8th of 32+0.2Margin−0.629th of 32
    4th of 3253.8%Shot share50.7%13th of 32
    25th of 3288.7%Save percentage90.2%12th of 32
    20th of 324–6Last 105–58th of 32
    26th of 327–11Road vs home5–625th of 32
    28th of 321493Opponent Elo149819th of 32
    15th of 321499Elo rating147526th of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    MammothFlames
    1400145015001550league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonUTACGY
    Puck line13–1617–12
    Last 104–67–3
    Favorite5–132–2
    Underdog8–315–10
    Overs–unders14–1518–11
    Overs–unders, last 105–57–3

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    UTA 4–0 CGY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.