Utah Mammoth at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Kevin StenlundGoals1
- Kevin StenlundAssists1
- Kevin StenlundPoints2
Canucks- Arshdeep BainsGoals1
- Aatu RatyAssists1
- Arshdeep BainsPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:24John Marino Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (4)4–1
- P317:52Kevin Stenlund Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Kailer Yamamoto (4), Jack McBain (6)3–1
- P34:17Arshdeep Bains Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Aatu Raty (7), Jonathan Lekkerimäki (1)2–1
- P214:05Nick Schmaltz Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (15), JJ Peterka (10)2–0
- P116:00Mikhail Sergachev Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (17), Dylan Guenther (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:00Mikhail Sergachev Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Clayton Keller (17), Dylan Guenther (12)UTA 1 – 0 VAN · UTA 54% → 70% +16UTA 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P214:05Nick Schmaltz Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (15), JJ Peterka (10)UTA 2 – 0 VAN · UTA 74% → 88% +15UTA 74% → 88%+15 pts
- P34:17Arshdeep Bains Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Aatu Raty (7), Jonathan Lekkerimäki (1)UTA 2 – 1 VAN · VAN 7% → 22% +15VAN 7% → 22%+15 pts
- P317:52Kevin Stenlund Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Kailer Yamamoto (4), Jack McBain (6)UTA 3 – 1 VAN · UTA 97% → >99% +2UTA 97% → >99%+2 pts
- P319:24John Marino Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (4)UTA 4 – 1 VAN · UTA >99% → 100% +0UTA >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 55%
- ML UTA -135 / VAN +114
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- UTA: Elo 50.0%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- UTA -123
- VAN +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 3.4 – 3.1 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −6 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN 0 Elo | VAN 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 53.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.023rd of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.632nd of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.730th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.4% | Shot share | 46.7%28th of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 88.8%25th of 32 |
| 29th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 2–832nd of 32 |
| 27th of 326–11 | Road vs home | 3–830th of 32 |
| 27th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 15058th of 32 |
| 15th of 321495 | Elo rating | 147127th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–16 | 14–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–13 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 13–7 |
| Overs–unders | 14–14 | 18–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 3–0 VAN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.
