Calgary Flames at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Morgan FrostGoals1
- Jonathan HuberdeauAssists1
- Morgan FrostPoints1
Predators- Ozzy WiesblattGoals1
- Nicolas HagueAssists2
- Nicolas HaguePoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:39Morgan Frost Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (17), Jonathan Huberdeau (9)1–5
- P32:59Michael Bunting Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Adam Wilsby (3), Tyson Jost (3)0–5
- P215:32Ozzy Wiesblatt Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (9), Spencer Stastney (7)0–4
- P214:25Jonathan Marchessault Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (7), Nicolas Hague (5)0–3
- P25:04Steven Stamkos Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (14), Ryan O'Reilly (11)0–2
- P16:24Reid Schaefer Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Fedor Svechkov (3), Nicolas Hague (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:24Reid Schaefer Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Fedor Svechkov (3), Nicolas Hague (4)CGY 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 53% → 68% +15NSH 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P25:04Steven Stamkos Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (14), Ryan O'Reilly (11)CGY 0 – 2 NSH · NSH 71% → 85% +14NSH 71% → 85%+14 pts
- P214:25Jonathan Marchessault Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (7), Nicolas Hague (5)CGY 0 – 3 NSH · NSH 88% → 96% +8NSH 88% → 96%+8 pts
- P215:32Ozzy Wiesblatt Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (9), Spencer Stastney (7)CGY 0 – 4 NSH · NSH 96% → >99% +3NSH 96% → >99%+3 pts
- P32:59Michael Bunting Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Adam Wilsby (3), Tyson Jost (3)CGY 0 – 5 NSH · NSH >99% → >99% +0NSH >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 53%
- ML CGY +105 / NSH -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- NSH: Elo 49.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NSH -114
- CGY +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.7 – 2.8 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −1 | CGY: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +4 Elo | CGY 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 52.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.4 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.731st of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −1.132nd of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 50.4%15th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 87.7%29th of 32 |
| 9th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 31st of 325–12 | Road vs home | 4–1030th of 32 |
| 18th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 15066th of 32 |
| 26th of 321476 | Elo rating | 143831st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–11 | 10–15 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 14–9 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders | 17–10 | 12–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 4–3 NSH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.