Minnesota Wild at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Yakov TreninGoals1
- Zach BogosianAssists1
- Yakov TreninPoints1
Flames- Matt CoronatoGoals1
- Matt CoronatoAssists1
- Matt CoronatoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:00Rasmus Andersson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–4
- P36:18Connor Zary Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (4), Mikael Backlund (11)1–3
- P33:33Matt Coronato Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (9), Joel Hanley (4)1–2
- P216:51Yakov Trenin Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Zach Bogosian (1), Zeev Buium (10)1–1
- P24:21Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Rasmus Andersson (14), Matt Coronato (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:21Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Rasmus Andersson (14), Matt Coronato (7)MIN 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 48% → 66% +18CGY 48% → 66%+18 pts
- P216:51Yakov Trenin Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Zach Bogosian (1), Zeev Buium (10)MIN 1 – 1 CGY · MIN 29% → 52% +22MIN 29% → 52%+22 pts
- P33:33Matt Coronato Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (9), Joel Hanley (4)MIN 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 49% → 75% +26CGY 49% → 75%+26 pts
- P36:18Connor Zary Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (4), Mikael Backlund (11)MIN 1 – 3 CGY · CGY 77% → 93% +16CGY 77% → 93%+16 pts
- P319:00Rasmus Andersson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMIN 1 – 4 CGY · CGY >99% → 100% +0CGY >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML MIN -122 / CGY +102
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 49.8%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- MIN -111
- CGY +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.8 – 2.7 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +6 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +2 Elo | CGY 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 53.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.432nd of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.830th of 32 |
| 24th of 3247.7% | Shot share | 50.6%13th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.1% | Save percentage | 90.0%14th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–58th of 32 |
| 9th of 327–5 | Road vs home | 4–627th of 32 |
| 20th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 32 |
| 13th of 321511 | Elo rating | 147029th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–11 | 16–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 13–3 | 14–10 |
| Overs–unders | 12–15 | 18–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–4 CGY in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.