Buffalo Sabres at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Jason ZuckerGoals1
- Rasmus DahlinAssists1
- Jason ZuckerPoints1
Jets- Kyle ConnorGoals1
- Kyle ConnorAssists1
- Kyle ConnorPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:26Gabriel Vilardi Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (19), Mark Scheifele (21)1–4
- P218:42Cole Koepke Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Morgan Barron (4), Dylan DeMelo (11)1–3
- P22:22Tanner Pearson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Koepke (3)1–2
- P114:44Jason Zucker Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Norris (3), Rasmus Dahlin (17)1–1
- P14:24Kyle Connor Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (12), Dylan Samberg (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:24Kyle Connor Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (12), Dylan Samberg (4)BUF 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 53% → 68% +15WPG 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P114:44Jason Zucker Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Norris (3), Rasmus Dahlin (17)BUF 1 – 1 WPG · BUF 31% → 47% +16BUF 31% → 47%+16 pts
- P22:22Tanner Pearson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Koepke (3)BUF 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 53% → 70% +17WPG 53% → 70%+17 pts
- P218:42Cole Koepke Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Morgan Barron (4), Dylan DeMelo (11)BUF 1 – 3 WPG · WPG 75% → 90% +15WPG 75% → 90%+15 pts
- P319:26Gabriel Vilardi Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (19), Mark Scheifele (21)BUF 1 – 4 WPG · WPG >99% → 100% +0WPG >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 53%
- ML BUF +105 / WPG -125
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.6 pts
- WPG: Elo 62.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- WPG -114
- BUF +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.2 – 3.3 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −8 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +92 Elo | WPG 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 60.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 19th of 3248.7% | Shot share | 47.6%25th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 90.5%10th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–729th of 32 |
| 32nd of 322–9 | Road vs home | 6–513th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321509 | Opponent Elo | 148832nd of 32 |
| 27th of 321474 | Elo rating | 15376th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–15 | 11–15 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 9–12 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 14–13 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 2–3 WPG in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.