Buffalo Sabres at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Bowen ByramGoals1
- Alex TuchAssists1
- Jason ZuckerPoints1
Flyers- Noah CatesGoals1
- Matvei MichkovAssists2
- Travis KonecnyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P212:43Owen Tippett Goal (9) Batted, assists: Matvei Michkov (8), Sean Couturier (12)2–5
- P211:48Bowen Byram Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (15), Jack Quinn (9)2–4
- P21:45Noah Cates Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (5), Jamie Drysdale (9)1–4
- P19:25Bobby Brink Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (9), Nikita Grebenkin (3)1–3
- P19:04Trevor Zegras Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (9), Travis Konecny (16)1–2
- P18:26Travis Konecny Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (7), Travis Sanheim (8)1–1
- P14:08Jason Zucker Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Doan (11), Josh Norris (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:08Jason Zucker Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Doan (11), Josh Norris (2)BUF 1 – 0 PHI · BUF 53% → 68% +14BUF 53% → 68%+14 pts
- P18:26Travis Konecny Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (7), Travis Sanheim (8)BUF 1 – 1 PHI · PHI 32% → 47% +15PHI 32% → 47%+15 pts
- P19:04Trevor Zegras Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (9), Travis Konecny (16)BUF 1 – 2 PHI · PHI 47% → 63% +16PHI 47% → 63%+16 pts
- P19:25Bobby Brink Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (9), Nikita Grebenkin (3)BUF 1 – 3 PHI · PHI 63% → 76% +14PHI 63% → 76%+14 pts
- P21:45Noah Cates Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (5), Jamie Drysdale (9)BUF 1 – 4 PHI · PHI 80% → 90% +10PHI 80% → 90%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 53%
- ML BUF -125 / PHI +105
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- BUF: Elo 47.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BUF -114
- PHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.3 – 3.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −7 | BUF: Colten Ellis: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +20 Elo | PHI 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.024th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.110th of 32 |
| 18th of 3248.9% | Shot share | 48.8%20th of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.4%22nd of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 32nd of 322–8 | Road vs home | 8–610th of 32 |
| 1st of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 150313th of 32 |
| 24th of 321478 | Elo rating | 147326th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–14 | 15–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 13–4 |
| Overs–unders | 13–13 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 3–3 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.