Winnipeg Jets at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Cole KoepkeGoals1
- Mark ScheifeleAssists1
- Gabriel VilardiPoints1
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals1
- Connor McDavidAssists2
- Leon DraisaitlPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:25Cole Koepke Goal (2) Wrap-around, assists: none2–6
- P313:29David Tomasek Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Trent Frederic (1)1–6
- P34:12Gabriel Vilardi Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (22), Kyle Connor (20)1–5
- P22:42Curtis Lazar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Janmark (4), Ty Emberson (5)0–5
- P113:31Evan Bouchard Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (20), Connor McDavid (28)0–4
- P17:24Matt Savoie Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Mattias Ekholm (12), Vasily Podkolzin (7)0–3
- P14:37Leon Draisaitl Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Evan Bouchard (22)0–2
- P13:00Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (27), Zach Hyman (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:00Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (27), Zach Hyman (4)WPG 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 63% → 76% +13EDM 63% → 76%+13 pts
- P14:37Leon Draisaitl Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Evan Bouchard (22)WPG 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 76% → 86% +10EDM 76% → 86%+10 pts
- P17:24Matt Savoie Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Mattias Ekholm (12), Vasily Podkolzin (7)WPG 0 – 3 EDM · EDM 86% → 93% +7EDM 86% → 93%+7 pts
- P113:31Evan Bouchard Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (20), Connor McDavid (28)WPG 0 – 4 EDM · EDM 94% → 97% +4EDM 94% → 97%+4 pts
- P22:42Curtis Lazar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Janmark (4), Ty Emberson (5)WPG 0 – 5 EDM · EDM 98% → >99% +1EDM 98% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 63%
- ML WPG +160 / EDM -192
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- EDM: Elo 58.5%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- EDM -171
- WPG +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.9 – 3.6 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WPG on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −3 | WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +60 Elo | EDM 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 62.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.28th of 32 |
| 13th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.630th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.424th of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.3% | Shot share | 51.7%9th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 87.6%32nd of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 15th of 327–8 | Road vs home | 6–513th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321487 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 32 |
| 6th of 321540 | Elo rating | 15338th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–15 | 10–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–12 | 5–16 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 14–13 | 16–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 3–3 EDM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.