San Jose Sharks at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Tyler ToffoliGoals2
- Alexander WennbergAssists3
- Tyler ToffoliPoints4
Penguins- Anthony ManthaGoals1
- Anthony ManthaAssists2
- Bryan RustPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT2:57John Klingberg Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (31), Collin Graf (9)6–5
- P318:22Tyler Toffoli Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (14), Macklin Celebrini (30)5–5
- P317:33Macklin Celebrini Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (13), Collin Graf (8)4–5
- P314:19William Eklund Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (13), Adam Gaudette (4)3–5
- P37:33John Klingberg Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (12), William Eklund (13)2–5
- P35:25Anthony Mantha Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (16), Erik Karlsson (20)1–5
- P219:53Bryan Rust Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (15), Anthony Mantha (10)1–4
- P29:42Kevin Hayes Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Noel Acciari (5), Connor Dewar (5)1–3
- P20:19Rutger McGroarty Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Kindel (4), Kris Letang (13)1–2
- P112:41Sidney Crosby Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (9), Bryan Rust (15)1–1
- P110:27Tyler Toffoli Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Dickinson (2), Alexander Wennberg (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:27Tyler Toffoli Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Dickinson (2), Alexander Wennberg (12)SJ 1 – 0 PIT · SJ 39% → 55% +16SJ 39% → 55%+16 pts
- P112:41Sidney Crosby Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (9), Bryan Rust (15)SJ 1 – 1 PIT · PIT 44% → 60% +16PIT 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P20:19Rutger McGroarty Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Kindel (4), Kris Letang (13)SJ 1 – 2 PIT · PIT 60% → 75% +16PIT 60% → 75%+16 pts
- P318:22Tyler Toffoli Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (14), Macklin Celebrini (30)SJ 5 – 5 PIT · SJ 1% → 48% +47SJ 1% → 48%+47 pts
- OT2:57John Klingberg Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (31), Collin Graf (9)SJ 6 – 5 PIT · SJ 48% → 97% +49SJ 48% → 97%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 62%
- ML SJ +150 / PIT -180
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- PIT: Elo 63.8%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- PIT -161
- SJ +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1413 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −5 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +98 Elo | PIT 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 60.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.114th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.211th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3243.6% | Shot share | 49.8%16th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 90.4%9th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 23rd of 326–9 | Road vs home | 5–828th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 149622nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 321413 | Elo rating | 148221st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–10 | 20–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 22–10 | 17–2 |
| Overs–unders | 13–19 | 14–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–4 PIT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.