San Jose Sharks at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Collin GrafGoals1
- Will SmithAssists1
- Collin GrafPoints1
Flyers- Christian DvorakGoals1
- Christian DvorakAssists1
- Christian DvorakPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:17Travis Konecny Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (12)1–4
- P219:48Noah Cates Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (6), Jamie Drysdale (10)1–3
- P23:20Carl Grundstrom Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Nick Seeler (4), Travis Sanheim (10)1–2
- P118:39Christian Dvorak Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Trevor Zegras (17), Travis Konecny (17)1–1
- P111:33Collin Graf Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: John Klingberg (6), Will Smith (17)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:33Collin Graf Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: John Klingberg (6), Will Smith (17)SJ 1 – 0 PHI · SJ 40% → 56% +16SJ 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P118:39Christian Dvorak Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Trevor Zegras (17), Travis Konecny (17)SJ 1 – 1 PHI · PHI 42% → 60% +17PHI 42% → 60%+17 pts
- P23:20Carl Grundstrom Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Nick Seeler (4), Travis Sanheim (10)SJ 1 – 2 PHI · PHI 59% → 76% +17PHI 59% → 76%+17 pts
- P219:48Noah Cates Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (6), Jamie Drysdale (10)SJ 1 – 3 PHI · PHI 79% → 92% +14PHI 79% → 92%+14 pts
- P318:17Travis Konecny Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (12)SJ 1 – 4 PHI · PHI >99% → >99% +0PHI >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 62%
- ML SJ +150 / PHI -180
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 64.4%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -161
- SJ +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.4 – 3.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1413 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +6 | SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +103 Elo | PHI 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 65.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.19th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3243.4% | Shot share | 49.0%19th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 89.5%19th of 32 |
| 11th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 26th of 325–8 | Road vs home | 9–711th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 150510th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321413 | Elo rating | 147626th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–9 | 17–10 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 21–9 | 15–4 |
| Overs–unders | 13–17 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–3 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.