San Jose Sharks at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals1
- Macklin CelebriniAssists2
- Macklin CelebriniPoints3
Hurricanes- Jordan StaalGoals1
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists1
- Jordan StaalPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:40Macklin Celebrini Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (9)4–1
- P215:14Alexander Wennberg Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: William Eklund (11), John Klingberg (5)3–1
- P27:54John Klingberg Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (28), Philipp Kurashev (9)2–1
- P113:18Jordan Staal Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (18), Andrei Svechnikov (8)1–1
- P10:33Collin Graf Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Macklin Celebrini (27), Will Smith (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:33Collin Graf Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Macklin Celebrini (27), Will Smith (16)SJ 1 – 0 CAR · SJ 26% → 39% +13SJ 26% → 39%+13 pts
- P113:18Jordan Staal Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (18), Andrei Svechnikov (8)SJ 1 – 1 CAR · CAR 56% → 72% +15CAR 56% → 72%+15 pts
- P27:54John Klingberg Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (28), Philipp Kurashev (9)SJ 2 – 1 CAR · SJ 32% → 51% +19SJ 32% → 51%+19 pts
- P215:14Alexander Wennberg Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: William Eklund (11), John Klingberg (5)SJ 3 – 1 CAR · SJ 56% → 76% +20SJ 56% → 76%+20 pts
- P318:40Macklin Celebrini Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (9)SJ 4 – 1 CAR · SJ >99% → >99% +0SJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 74%
- ML SJ +270 / CAR -340
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- CAR: Elo 69.4%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- CAR -286
- SJ +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.5 – 4.0 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1406 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −2 | SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +142 Elo | CAR 69.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 73.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 72.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +0.64th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3243.4% | Shot share | 57.9%1st of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.1%22nd of 32 |
| 10th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 32 |
| 30th of 324–8 | Road vs home | 9–54th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321509 | Opponent Elo | 150411th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321406 | Elo rating | 15444th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–9 | 11–16 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | — | 9–16 |
| Underdog | 20–9 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 13–16 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 0–5 CAR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.