Nashville Predators at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Filip ForsbergGoals1
- Filip ForsbergAssists1
- Filip ForsbergPoints2
Hurricanes- Jackson BlakeGoals2
- Nikolaj EhlersAssists2
- Jackson BlakePoints3
Scoring summary
- P311:36Filip Forsberg Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Nick Blankenburg (8), Spencer Stastney (8)3–6
- P39:09Matthew Wood Goal (8) Between Legs, assists: Filip Forsberg (9), Brady Skjei (7)2–6
- P38:12Jackson Blake Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (13)1–6
- P36:26Michael Bunting Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (15), Erik Haula (12)1–5
- P34:45Sebastian Aho Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: none0–5
- P215:46Jackson Blake Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (12), K'Andre Miller (10)0–4
- P119:44William Carrier Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (7), Jordan Staal (3)0–3
- P19:55Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (8), Shayne Gostisbehere (17)0–2
- P18:01Taylor Hall Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Jackson Blake (10), Logan Stankoven (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:01Taylor Hall Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Jackson Blake (10), Logan Stankoven (7)NSH 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 65% → 78% +13CAR 65% → 78%+13 pts
- P19:55Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (8), Shayne Gostisbehere (17)NSH 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 78% → 88% +10CAR 78% → 88%+10 pts
- P119:44William Carrier Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (7), Jordan Staal (3)NSH 0 – 3 CAR · CAR 89% → 95% +6CAR 89% → 95%+6 pts
- P215:46Jackson Blake Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (12), K'Andre Miller (10)NSH 0 – 4 CAR · CAR 98% → >99% +2CAR 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P311:36Filip Forsberg Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Nick Blankenburg (8), Spencer Stastney (8)NSH 3 – 6 CAR · NSH <1% → <1% +0NSH <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 66%
- ML NSH +185 / CAR -225
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- CAR: Elo 68.8%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- CAR -197
- NSH +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.3 – 3.2 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +10 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +137 Elo | CAR 68.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 69.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 69.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.36th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.9 | Margin | +0.55th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 57.6%1st of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 89.2%22nd of 32 |
| 8th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–58th of 32 |
| 24th of 324–6 | Road vs home | 8–57th of 32 |
| 5th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 15067th of 32 |
| 30th of 321447 | Elo rating | 15415th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–15 | 10–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 8–16 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 13–14 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 3–1 CAR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.