Nashville Predators at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals1
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists1
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints2
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheGoals1
- A.J. GreerAssists1
- Carter VerhaeghePoints1
Scoring summary
- OT4:03Steven Stamkos Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (12), Roman Josi (8)2–1
- P313:41Ryan O'Reilly Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Michael Bunting (10), Nicolas Hague (6)1–1
- P116:26Carter Verhaeghe Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (7), A.J. Greer (5)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:26Carter Verhaeghe Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (7), A.J. Greer (5)NSH 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 60% → 76% +15FLA 60% → 76%+15 pts
- P313:41Ryan O'Reilly Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Michael Bunting (10), Nicolas Hague (6)NSH 1 – 1 FLA · NSH 11% → 46% +35NSH 11% → 46%+35 pts
- OT4:03Steven Stamkos Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (12), Roman Josi (8)NSH 2 – 1 FLA · NSH 48% → >99% +51NSH 48% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 62%
- ML NSH +154 / FLA -185
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.0 pts
- FLA: Elo 68.2%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- FLA -165
- NSH +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.9 – 3.6 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +6 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +133 Elo | FLA 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 66.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 66.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.9 | Margin | −0.221st of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 52.5%7th of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.1% | Save percentage | 89.1%22nd of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–58th of 32 |
| 29th of 323–6 | Road vs home | 8–715th of 32 |
| 8th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 32 |
| 30th of 321444 | Elo rating | 15367th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–15 | 7–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 5–17 |
| Underdog | 9–9 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 13–13 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 1–4 FLA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.