Colorado Avalanche at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Valeri NichushkinGoals1
- Devon ToewsAssists1
- Brent BurnsPoints1
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals1
- Christian DvorakAssists1
- Sean CouturierPoints1
Scoring summary
- P25:58Travis Konecny Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Emil Andrae (6), Christian Dvorak (11)3–2
- P21:47Valeri Nichushkin Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (12), Devon Toews (9)3–1
- P119:08Brock Nelson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (25), Cale Makar (26)2–1
- P18:28Brent Burns Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (25), Jack Drury (6)1–1
- P12:09Sean Couturier Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Noah Juulsen (3), Owen Tippett (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:09Sean Couturier Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Noah Juulsen (3), Owen Tippett (10)COL 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 41% → 56% +15PHI 41% → 56%+15 pts
- P18:28Brent Burns Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (25), Jack Drury (6)COL 1 – 1 PHI · COL 43% → 59% +16COL 43% → 59%+16 pts
- P119:08Brock Nelson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (25), Cale Makar (26)COL 2 – 1 PHI · COL 58% → 74% +16COL 58% → 74%+16 pts
- P21:47Valeri Nichushkin Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Victor Olofsson (12), Devon Toews (9)COL 3 – 1 PHI · COL 74% → 87% +12COL 74% → 87%+12 pts
- P25:58Travis Konecny Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Emil Andrae (6), Christian Dvorak (11)COL 3 – 2 PHI · PHI 13% → 25% +13PHI 13% → 25%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 59%
- ML COL -162 / PHI +136
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- COL: Elo 56.1%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- COL -146
- PHI +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.5 – 3.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1585 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | COL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −6 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +43 Elo | COL 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 61.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.0 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.7 | Margin | +0.28th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.1% | Shot share | 49.1%19th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.0% | Save percentage | 89.5%19th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 8th of 329–6 | Road vs home | 9–68th of 32 |
| 31st of 321490 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 32 |
| 1st of 321585 | Elo rating | 147826th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–12 | 16–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–12 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 14–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–17 | 15–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–1 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.