Colorado Avalanche at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals2
- Martin NecasAssists3
- Martin NecasPoints3
Rangers- Conor ShearyGoals1
- Mika ZibanejadAssists1
- Conor ShearyPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:46Nathan MacKinnon Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Cale Makar (25), Martin Necas (24)3–2
- P319:18Artemi Panarin Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (12), Alexis Lafrenière (9)2–2
- P315:26Nathan MacKinnon Goal (23) Batted, assists: Martin Necas (23), Josh Manson (4)2–1
- P34:23Conor Sheary Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (9), J.T. Miller (11)1–1
- P27:06Parker Kelly Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Sam Malinski (13), Martin Necas (22)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:06Parker Kelly Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Sam Malinski (13), Martin Necas (22)COL 1 – 0 NYR · COL 58% → 76% +18COL 58% → 76%+18 pts
- P34:23Conor Sheary Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (9), J.T. Miller (11)COL 1 – 1 NYR · NYR 20% → 44% +25NYR 20% → 44%+25 pts
- P315:26Nathan MacKinnon Goal (23) Batted, assists: Martin Necas (23), Josh Manson (4)COL 2 – 1 NYR · COL 53% → 92% +39COL 53% → 92%+39 pts
- P319:18Artemi Panarin Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (12), Alexis Lafrenière (9)COL 2 – 2 NYR · NYR <1% → 49% +49NYR <1% → 49%+49 pts
- OT2:46Nathan MacKinnon Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Cale Makar (25), Martin Necas (24)COL 3 – 2 NYR · COL 52% → 97% +45COL 52% → 97%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 61%
- ML COL -175 / NYR +145
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- COL: Elo 53.3%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- COL -156
- NYR +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.6 – 2.9 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1583 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +1 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +23 Elo | COL 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 57.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.0 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 2.62nd of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.7 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3255.9% | Shot share | 48.2%23rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3292.0% | Save percentage | 91.9%3rd of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–58th of 32 |
| 9th of 328–6 | Road vs home | 3–930th of 32 |
| 31st of 321489 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 32 |
| 1st of 321583 | Elo rating | 151611th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–11 | 16–13 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–11 | 5–10 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 11–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–16 | 11–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–2 NYR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.