San Jose Sharks at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Alexander WennbergGoals1
- Alexander WennbergAssists2
- Alexander WennbergPoints3
Maple Leafs- Dakota JoshuaGoals1
- William NylanderAssists2
- William NylanderPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:49Alexander Wennberg Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (12)3–2
- P318:35John Klingberg Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (29), Alexander Wennberg (11)2–2
- P215:31Dmitry Orlov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: John Klingberg (7), Alexander Wennberg (10)1–2
- P214:32Auston Matthews Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (23), Morgan Rielly (18)0–2
- P114:33Dakota Joshua Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Jake McCabe (9), William Nylander (22)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:33Dakota Joshua Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Jake McCabe (9), William Nylander (22)SJ 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 63% → 77% +14TOR 63% → 77%+14 pts
- P214:32Auston Matthews Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (23), Morgan Rielly (18)SJ 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 79% → 91% +12TOR 79% → 91%+12 pts
- P215:31Dmitry Orlov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: John Klingberg (7), Alexander Wennberg (10)SJ 1 – 2 TOR · SJ 8% → 21% +13SJ 8% → 21%+13 pts
- P318:35John Klingberg Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (29), Alexander Wennberg (11)SJ 2 – 2 TOR · SJ <1% → 48% +47SJ <1% → 48%+47 pts
- OT2:49Alexander Wennberg Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (12)SJ 3 – 2 TOR · SJ 47% → 97% +50SJ 47% → 97%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 64%
- ML SJ +170 / TOR -205
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 71.2%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- TOR -181
- SJ +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.8 – 3.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1410 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +2 | SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · TOR: Dennis Hildeby: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +157 Elo | TOR 71.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 65.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.36th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.110th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3243.3% | Shot share | 46.3%30th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 90.4%12th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 29th of 325–9 | Road vs home | 9–817th of 32 |
| 5th of 321509 | Opponent Elo | 149328th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321410 | Elo rating | 15299th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–10 | 12–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 4–14 |
| Underdog | 21–10 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 13–18 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 2–2 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.