Edmonton Oilers at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Zach HymanGoals1
- Connor McDavidAssists1
- Zach HymanPoints1
Canadiens- Alexandre TexierGoals1
- Juraj SlafkovskyAssists2
- Juraj SlafkovskyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:52Alexandre Texier Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jayden Struble (5)1–4
- P312:29Zach Hyman Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (25), Connor McDavid (34)1–3
- P33:38Nick Suzuki Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (11), Lane Hutson (23)0–3
- P211:58Joseph Veleno Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none0–2
- P22:28Ivan Demidov Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (10), Lane Hutson (22)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:28Ivan Demidov Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (10), Lane Hutson (22)EDM 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 46% → 64% +18MTL 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P211:58Joseph Veleno Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: noneEDM 0 – 2 MTL · MTL 67% → 84% +16MTL 67% → 84%+16 pts
- P33:38Nick Suzuki Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (11), Lane Hutson (23)EDM 0 – 3 MTL · MTL 91% → 98% +7MTL 91% → 98%+7 pts
- P312:29Zach Hyman Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (25), Connor McDavid (34)EDM 1 – 3 MTL · EDM <1% → 2% +2EDM <1% → 2%+2 pts
- P313:52Alexandre Texier Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jayden Struble (5)EDM 1 – 4 MTL · MTL 99% → >99% +1MTL 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 55%
- ML EDM -135 / MTL +114
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- EDM: Elo 54.4%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- EDM -123
- MTL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.4 – 3.1 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | MTL and EDM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −4 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +31 Elo | EDM 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.632nd of 32 |
| 18th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.424th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.0% | Shot share | 47.7%26th of 32 |
| 30th of 3287.9% | Save percentage | 87.6%32nd of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 25th of 327–11 | Road vs home | 7–923rd of 32 |
| 16th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 32 |
| 6th of 321542 | Elo rating | 148221st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–19 | 13–18 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–17 | 2–14 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders | 19–13 | 22–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 4–1 MTL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.