Montreal Canadiens at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Josh AndersonGoals1
- Nick SuzukiAssists2
- Nick SuzukiPoints2
Rangers- J.T. MillerGoals2
- Matthew RobertsonAssists2
- J.T. MillerPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:56J.T. Miller Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (14), Vincent Trocheck (10)4–5
- P27:58J.T. Miller Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Matthew Robertson (4), Conor Sheary (8)4–4
- P27:22Will Cuylle Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Robertson (3), Noah Laba (5)4–3
- P23:17Josh Anderson Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (21), Nick Suzuki (28)4–2
- P119:08Artemi Panarin Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–2
- P118:49Noah Laba Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (9), Conor Sheary (7)3–1
- P116:18Jake Evans Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (20), Joseph Veleno (1)3–0
- P114:10Arber Xhekaj Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (8), Alexandre Texier (4)2–0
- P112:41Zachary Bolduc Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (27), Cole Caufield (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:41Zachary Bolduc Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (27), Cole Caufield (16)MTL 1 – 0 NYR · MTL 45% → 62% +16MTL 45% → 62%+16 pts
- P23:17Josh Anderson Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (21), Nick Suzuki (28)MTL 4 – 2 NYR · MTL 64% → 80% +15MTL 64% → 80%+15 pts
- P27:22Will Cuylle Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Robertson (3), Noah Laba (5)MTL 4 – 3 NYR · NYR 19% → 34% +16NYR 19% → 34%+16 pts
- P27:58J.T. Miller Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Matthew Robertson (4), Conor Sheary (8)MTL 4 – 4 NYR · NYR 34% → 54% +19NYR 34% → 54%+19 pts
- OT2:56J.T. Miller Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (14), Vincent Trocheck (10)MTL 4 – 5 NYR · NYR 51% → 98% +47NYR 51% → 98%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 55%
- ML MTL +114 / NYR -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- NYR: Elo 57.0%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- NYR -123
- MTL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.6 – 2.9 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +1 | MTL: Jacob Fowler: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +49 Elo | NYR 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 58.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.0% | Shot share | 47.7%26th of 32 |
| 31st of 3287.7% | Save percentage | 91.8%3rd of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 3rd of 329–5 | Road vs home | 3–1132nd of 32 |
| 14th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15057th of 32 |
| 20th of 321484 | Elo rating | 150613th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 12–18 | 18–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–14 | 5–11 |
| Underdog | 10–4 | 13–3 |
| Overs–unders | 21–9 | 11–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 2–5 NYR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.