Vegas Golden Knights at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Brett HowdenGoals1
- Mark StoneAssists2
- Jack EichelPoints2
Rangers- Alexis LafreniereGoals1
- Alexis LafreniereAssists1
- Mika ZibanejadPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:52Jack Eichel Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (14), Brett Howden (4)3–2
- P319:08Tomas Hertl Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Mark Stone (16), Jack Eichel (24)2–2
- P213:01Alexis Lafrenière Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (13), Artemi Panarin (22)1–2
- P29:08Mika Zibanejad Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (10), Matthew Robertson (2)1–1
- P10:36Brett Howden Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (22), Mark Stone (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:36Brett Howden Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (22), Mark Stone (15)VGK 1 – 0 NYR · VGK 61% → 74% +13VGK 61% → 74%+13 pts
- P29:08Mika Zibanejad Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (10), Matthew Robertson (2)VGK 1 – 1 NYR · NYR 24% → 42% +18NYR 24% → 42%+18 pts
- P213:01Alexis Lafrenière Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (13), Artemi Panarin (22)VGK 1 – 2 NYR · NYR 43% → 64% +21NYR 43% → 64%+21 pts
- P319:08Tomas Hertl Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Mark Stone (16), Jack Eichel (24)VGK 2 – 2 NYR · VGK <1% → 51% +51VGK <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT4:52Jack Eichel Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (14), Brett Howden (4)VGK 3 – 2 NYR · VGK 51% → >99% +49VGK 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 61%
- ML VGK -175 / NYR +145
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.0 pts
- VGK: Elo 46.9%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- VGK -156
- NYR +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.1 – 2.4 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +2 | VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +21 Elo | NYR 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 50.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.111th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.3% | Shot share | 47.8%25th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 92.0%2nd of 32 |
| 9th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 32 |
| 12th of 326–6 | Road vs home | 3–1032nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 15066th of 32 |
| 10th of 321526 | Elo rating | 151412th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–19 | 17–13 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–18 | 5–10 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 12–3 |
| Overs–unders | 14–13 | 11–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 3–2 NYR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.