Vegas Golden Knights at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Shea TheodoreGoals1
- Jack EichelAssists2
- Jack EichelPoints2
DevilsScoring summary
- P318:36Ivan Barbashev Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (14), Jack Eichel (23)3–0
- P315:36Tomas Hertl Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (21), Pavel Dorofeyev (7)2–0
- P119:47Shea Theodore Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (22), Noah Hanifin (4)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:47Shea Theodore Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (22), Noah Hanifin (4)VGK 1 – 0 NJ · VGK 55% → 72% +17VGK 55% → 72%+17 pts
- P315:36Tomas Hertl Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (21), Pavel Dorofeyev (7)VGK 2 – 0 NJ · VGK 92% → >99% +8VGK 92% → >99%+8 pts
- P318:36Ivan Barbashev Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (14), Jack Eichel (23)VGK 3 – 0 NJ · VGK >99% → >99% +0VGK >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 56%
- ML VGK -142 / NJ +120
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- VGK: Elo 48.3%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -129
- NJ +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.9 – 2.6 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −1 | VGK: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +12 Elo | NJ 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 52.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.017th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.4% | Shot share | 50.9%11th of 32 |
| 24th of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 89.7%18th of 32 |
| 8th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 19th of 325–6 | Road vs home | 9–42nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 15058th of 32 |
| 10th of 321521 | Elo rating | 149715th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–19 | 10–17 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–18 | 3–14 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 14–12 | 14–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 3–1 NJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.