New York Rangers at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals1
- Connor BedardAssists1
- Connor BedardPoints2
Scoring summary
- P33:52Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Greene (6), Connor Bedard (23)0–3
- P214:27Connor Bedard Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (12)0–2
- P27:08Louis Crevier Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Matthew Grzelcyk (5), Jason Dickinson (3)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:08Louis Crevier Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Matthew Grzelcyk (5), Jason Dickinson (3)NYR 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 45% → 64% +19CHI 45% → 64%+19 pts
- P214:27Connor Bedard Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (12)NYR 0 – 2 CHI · CHI 67% → 84% +17CHI 67% → 84%+17 pts
- P33:52Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Greene (6), Connor Bedard (23)NYR 0 – 3 CHI · CHI 91% → 98% +7CHI 91% → 98%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 57%
- ML NYR -148 / CHI +124
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- NYR: Elo 55.3%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- NYR -134
- CHI +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 2.5 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +6 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +37 Elo | NYR 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 52.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.022nd of 32 |
| 5th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 16th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.8% | Shot share | 45.1%31st of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.9% | Save percentage | 90.2%13th of 32 |
| 11th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 1st of 3212–5 | Road vs home | 6–824th of 32 |
| 6th of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 32 |
| 12th of 321512 | Elo rating | 143431st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–13 | 23–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–10 | — |
| Underdog | 13–3 | 23–6 |
| Overs–unders | 11–20 | 14–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 3–1 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.