Detroit Red Wings at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Simon EdvinssonGoals1
- Nate DanielsonAssists1
- Simon EdvinssonPoints1
Oilers- Zach HymanGoals3
- Connor McDavidAssists4
- Connor McDavidPoints4
Scoring summary
- P318:43Zach Hyman Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (32), Leon Draisaitl (23)1–4
- P217:48Zach Hyman Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (31), Darnell Nurse (6)1–3
- P25:41Simon Edvinsson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nate Danielson (5), Elmer Soderblom (1)1–2
- P22:46Mattias Ekholm Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (30), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (17)0–2
- P114:25Zach Hyman Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Connor McDavid (29), Leon Draisaitl (22)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:25Zach Hyman Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Connor McDavid (29), Leon Draisaitl (22)DET 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 61% → 76% +15EDM 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P22:46Mattias Ekholm Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (30), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (17)DET 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 76% → 88% +12EDM 76% → 88%+12 pts
- P25:41Simon Edvinsson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nate Danielson (5), Elmer Soderblom (1)DET 1 – 2 EDM · DET 11% → 24% +12DET 11% → 24%+12 pts
- P217:48Zach Hyman Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (31), Darnell Nurse (6)DET 1 – 3 EDM · EDM 79% → 92% +13EDM 79% → 92%+13 pts
- P318:43Zach Hyman Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (32), Leon Draisaitl (23)DET 1 – 4 EDM · EDM >99% → >99% +0EDM >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 62%
- ML DET +154 / EDM -185
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- EDM: Elo 63.9%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- EDM -165
- DET +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.9 – 3.6 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −3 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +99 Elo | EDM 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 61.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.528th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.222nd of 32 |
| 8th of 3252.0% | Shot share | 51.8%9th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 87.6%32nd of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 12th of 328–7 | Road vs home | 7–613th of 32 |
| 30th of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 32 |
| 16th of 321494 | Elo rating | 15347th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–16 | 11–19 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–12 | 6–17 |
| Underdog | 12–4 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 18–13 | 18–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–3 EDM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.