Detroit Red Wings at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- James van RiemsdykGoals1
- Axel Sandin-PellikkaAssists2
- Axel Sandin-PellikkaPoints2
CanucksScoring summary
- P315:29Dylan Larkin Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (22)4–0
- P215:52Nate Danielson Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Axel Sandin-Pellikka (8), Marco Kasper (1)3–0
- P215:15Andrew Copp Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Axel Sandin-Pellikka (7), Alex DeBrincat (17)2–0
- P114:14James van Riemsdyk Goal (7) Backhand, assists: J.T. Compher (7), Michael Rasmussen (5)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:14James van Riemsdyk Goal (7) Backhand, assists: J.T. Compher (7), Michael Rasmussen (5)DET 1 – 0 VAN · DET 54% → 70% +16DET 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P215:15Andrew Copp Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Axel Sandin-Pellikka (7), Alex DeBrincat (17)DET 2 – 0 VAN · DET 74% → 89% +15DET 74% → 89%+15 pts
- P215:52Nate Danielson Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Axel Sandin-Pellikka (8), Marco Kasper (1)DET 3 – 0 VAN · DET 89% → 96% +8DET 89% → 96%+8 pts
- P315:29Dylan Larkin Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (22)DET 4 – 0 VAN · DET >99% → >99% +0DET >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DET 54%
- ML DET -130 / VAN +110
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- DET: Elo 46.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -119
- VAN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.4 – 3.1 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −7 | DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +23 Elo | VAN 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 27th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.632nd of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.730th of 32 |
| 5th of 3252.9% | Shot share | 47.1%28th of 32 |
| 31st of 3287.7% | Save percentage | 88.8%26th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 17th of 326–7 | Road vs home | 4–930th of 32 |
| 28th of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 15057th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321485 | Elo rating | 147127th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–15 | 15–14 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–11 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 12–4 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 17–12 | 19–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–2 VAN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.