Detroit Red Wings at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Patrick KaneGoals1
- Simon EdvinssonAssists2
- Simon EdvinssonPoints2
Kraken- Adam LarssonGoals1
- Adam LarssonAssists1
- Adam LarssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:31Patrick Kane Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (16)4–3
- P219:32James van Riemsdyk Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (6), Simon Edvinsson (6)3–3
- P212:44Chandler Stephenson Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Adam Larsson (5), Eeli Tolvanen (9)2–3
- P26:44Adam Larsson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (10), Tye Kartye (3)2–2
- P25:10Andrew Copp Goal (2) Poke, assists: Simon Edvinsson (5), Moritz Seider (18)2–1
- P116:16Brandon Montour Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (8), Matty Beniers (13)1–1
- P17:06Emmitt Finnie Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Nate Danielson (4), Axel Sandin-Pellikka (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:10Andrew Copp Goal (2) Poke, assists: Simon Edvinsson (5), Moritz Seider (18)DET 2 – 1 SEA · DET 52% → 70% +18DET 52% → 70%+18 pts
- P26:44Adam Larsson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (10), Tye Kartye (3)DET 2 – 2 SEA · SEA 30% → 48% +19SEA 30% → 48%+19 pts
- P212:44Chandler Stephenson Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Adam Larsson (5), Eeli Tolvanen (9)DET 2 – 3 SEA · SEA 49% → 69% +21SEA 49% → 69%+21 pts
- P219:32James van Riemsdyk Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (6), Simon Edvinsson (6)DET 3 – 3 SEA · DET 28% → 51% +24DET 28% → 51%+24 pts
- P317:31Patrick Kane Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (16)DET 4 – 3 SEA · DET 50% → 96% +46DET 50% → 96%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML DET -120 / SEA +100
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- DET: Elo 45.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- SEA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.8 – 2.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | 0 | DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +30 Elo | SEA 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.530th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.016th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.527th of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.0% | Shot share | 47.2%28th of 32 |
| 31st of 3287.6% | Save percentage | 89.8%16th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325–7 | Road vs home | 6–618th of 32 |
| 27th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321483 | Elo rating | 146828th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–14 | 17–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–10 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 12–4 | 14–5 |
| Overs–unders | 16–12 | 10–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–1 SEA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.