Detroit Red Wings at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Patrick KaneGoals1
- Moritz SeiderAssists2
- Patrick KanePoints2
Blue Jackets- Adam FantilliGoals2
- Zach WerenskiAssists3
- Sean MonahanPoints3
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Kirill Marchenko Goal Wrist Shot0–2
- SO0:00Kent Johnson Goal Backhand0–2
- P318:29Adam Fantilli Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (20), Sean Monahan (11)5–5
- P311:38Alex DeBrincat Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–4
- P39:35Patrick Kane Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (17), Andrew Copp (10)4–4
- P213:50Adam Fantilli Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (19), Sean Monahan (10)3–4
- P210:20James van Riemsdyk Goal (5) Poke, assists: Andrew Copp (9), Emmitt Finnie (8)3–3
- P29:08Lucas Raymond Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Axel Sandin-Pellikka (5), Patrick Kane (14)2–3
- P27:11Kent Johnson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (9), Denton Mateychuk (5)1–3
- P25:18Kirill Marchenko Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (18), Sean Monahan (9)1–2
- P21:09Dylan Larkin Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Moritz Seider (16), Lucas Raymond (21)1–1
- P117:55Ivan Provorov Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brendan Gaunce (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:20James van Riemsdyk Goal (5) Poke, assists: Andrew Copp (9), Emmitt Finnie (8)DET 3 – 3 CBJ · DET 29% → 48% +20DET 29% → 48%+20 pts
- P213:50Adam Fantilli Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (19), Sean Monahan (10)DET 3 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 51% → 72% +21CBJ 51% → 72%+21 pts
- P39:35Patrick Kane Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (17), Andrew Copp (10)DET 4 – 4 CBJ · DET 18% → 49% +31DET 18% → 49%+31 pts
- P311:38Alex DeBrincat Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: noneDET 5 – 4 CBJ · DET 49% → 83% +34DET 49% → 83%+34 pts
- P318:29Adam Fantilli Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (20), Sean Monahan (11)DET 5 – 5 CBJ · CBJ 1% → 50% +49CBJ 1% → 50%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 52%
- ML DET +100 / CBJ -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- CBJ: Elo 53.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -109
- DET +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.2 – 3.3 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −15 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.37 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +22 Elo | CBJ 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 52.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.321st of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.322nd of 32 |
| 6th of 3253.1% | Shot share | 49.6%17th of 32 |
| 28th of 3287.8% | Save percentage | 89.9%16th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 18th of 325–6 | Road vs home | 5–624th of 32 |
| 27th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 15092nd of 32 |
| 21st of 321485 | Elo rating | 149018th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 13–14 | 14–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–10 | 1–7 |
| Underdog | 11–4 | 13–5 |
| Overs–unders | 15–12 | 13–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 5–2 CBJ in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.