Minnesota Wild at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Matt BoldyGoals1
- Matt BoldyAssists1
- Mats ZuccarelloPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:22Mats Zuccarello Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (15), Matt Boldy (15)2–4
- P35:09
Aatu Raty Goal (3) Backhand, assists: none1–4 - P215:12Aatu Raty Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Evander Kane (10)1–3
- P211:46Elias Pettersson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tom Willander (7), Aatu Raty (8)1–2
- P29:29Tom Willander Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (5), Jake DeBrusk (5)1–1
- P13:11Matt Boldy Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (10), Yakov Trenin (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:11Matt Boldy Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (10), Yakov Trenin (6)MIN 1 – 0 VAN · MIN 59% → 73% +14MIN 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P29:29Tom Willander Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (5), Jake DeBrusk (5)MIN 1 – 1 VAN · VAN 25% → 43% +18VAN 25% → 43%+18 pts
- P211:46Elias Pettersson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tom Willander (7), Aatu Raty (8)MIN 1 – 2 VAN · VAN 44% → 64% +21VAN 44% → 64%+21 pts
- P215:12Aatu Raty Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Evander Kane (10)MIN 1 – 3 VAN · VAN 66% → 84% +18VAN 66% → 84%+18 pts
- P35:09Aatu Raty Goal (3) Backhand, assists: noneMIN 1 – 4 VAN · VAN 91% → 98% +7VAN 91% → 98%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 59%
- ML MIN -162 / VAN +136
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 56.4%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -146
- VAN +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.0 – 2.5 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | VAN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +17 | +7 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.44 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · VAN: Nikita Tolopilo: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +45 Elo | MIN 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.632nd of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.830th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.6% | Shot share | 47.3%26th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.0% | Save percentage | 88.6%26th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 2–832nd of 32 |
| 12th of 327–6 | Road vs home | 3–931st of 32 |
| 21st of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 15057th of 32 |
| 13th of 321506 | Elo rating | 146729th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–12 | 14–14 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 13–3 | 13–8 |
| Overs–unders | 12–16 | 18–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–2 VAN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 7.